Decide
A research lens, not a buy button. The one validated edge — real-creator launches at t=0 — with the honest odds, who you can actually catch, and the blunt caveat. Enough to make a call; never enough to pretend it's a sure thing.
Graduation edgeVALIDATED · in-sample
real creators graduate 26.1% vs 1.62% base (creator-clustered, N=463, CI [0.21,0.29]) — strong, but candidate-not-forward
Profit edgeNO EARLY-ENTRY EDGE
on-curve early entry is a proven dead end (negative-EV, ~$0 liquidity, median forward-peak 1.0×). The only executable pocket — post-graduation 2× on real liquidity — is collecting now; unproven, weeks out.
odds lens, not an entry signal · no on-curve entry edge (negative-EV) · 23-day single-regime · paper-only · not financial advice
The odds — foresight, not a buy
3.9% gated
0.665% base
≈ 1 in 25 to graduate — even a proven creator misses ~24 of 25. An odds, not a buy.
A REAL creator (<100 launches) with a prior graduation graduates their next at strict-t0 3.9–7.1% vs the 0.665% same-window base — a 6–11× lift, validated in-sample. The edge is being early on the RIGHT creators repeatedly, not any single name.
Can a human catch these?
Cohort winners graduate this fast after launch — 48% within 5 min, so a human can't hand-enter ~half.
<60s19(19%)
1–5m29(29%)
5–30m33(33%)
>30m19(19%)
cohort-historical · 23-day single regime
Signal scorecard
What we tested and what actually leads. Only creator-rep (t=0) survived; the rest are shown so a strong-looking number can't masquerade as an edge.
LEADINGcreator-rep (t=0)the one validated leading edge — provenance at birthvalidated
WEAKKOL-copy~1% pre-migration, bot-class laglive
NEGATIVEsmart-money convergence0/46 ever tradeable — structural failvalidated
NEGATIVEon-curve velocitycatches curve-death, not winnersvalidated
Watch now — real-creator launches (t=0)
no real-creator launches in the last 24h
Creator
this wallet isn't in the reputation table yet (no graduated launch on record).
t=0 provenance · foresight, not a buy recommendation · not financial advice